Garden State May Shape Senate Control

As an aside, does anyone really believe the incessant attack ads that have filled our airwaves and stuffed our mailboxes the last six months? There has to be a point of “scandal and innuendo fatigue,” where voters are so numb from the constant barrage of negative messages that they likely have a hard time distinguishing which candidate is worse.

How is it possible that Menendez and Kean, with decades of distinguished public service between them, could be so horrible? Ironically, neither has ever been formally accused of any wrongdoing—except by the other. Sadly, electoral politics is no longer a contest of ideas but instead the battle of the negative 30-second soundbite.

From a national perspective, survey research continues to indicate Democrats are poised to make gains in both the U.S. House and Senate mid-term elections. In fact, it is widely believed that the minority party will easily pick up the minimum 15 House seats needed to wrest control of the lower chamber from the GOP for the first time since 1994.

Until recently, however, you probably couldn’t get a riverboat gambler to bet that the GOP would be in danger of losing control of the U.S. Senate. While the odds are still long that this outcome will play out, a look at the key battleground races this late in the season clearly shows that it is very possible for the Democrats to win a majority.

The U.S. Senate currently comprises 55 Republicans, 44 Democrats and one Independent. This year, 15 Republican, 17 Democratic seats, as well as an Independent one, are up for election. In order for the Democratic Party to gain a majority, they need a net gain of six seats.

Democrats are expected to easily pick up two seats in Pennsylvania and Ohio, where the challengers are holding double-digit leads against incumbent Republican Sens. Rick Santorum (Pennsylvania) and Mike DeWine (Ohio). Also in trouble is incumbent Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-Rhode Island), who is trailing his opponent by five to seven points. There are three Republican incumbents, Sens. George Allen (Virginia), Conrad Burns (Montana) and Jim Talent (Michigan), who are tied with their challengers.

The minority party will seize control of the Senate if all of the four toss-up races break for the Democrats—provided they do not lose a single seat.

That brings us back to New Jersey. With most polls still showing the race too close to call, New Jersey’s contest is virtually the only campaign in the country where an incumbent Democrat could lose. Clearly, the New Jersey electorate is carrying considerable weight this year because the winner of the Menendez v. Kean election could determine who controls the U.S. Senate for years to come.

Gene J. Mulroyis a principal in Mulroy, LiCausi & Gibbs, LLC, a government relations and business development company with offices in Trenton and Hoboken.

He can be reached at gene@mlgnj.com