Thursday’s post-close release of below-target results and cautious commentary from
Dell set the stage for lower equity prices on Friday. Weakness in rally leaders tech, materials and energy served to more than offset strength in defensive sectors, including health care and consumer staples. Continued modest dollar strength (+0.4 percent) was also a negative for stocks. After a sharply weaker opening, the Dow rallied throughout much of the day, momentarily entering the black before finishing lower at the close. The major indices finished the day down 0.1 percent to 0.5 percent, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq registering the high end of that decline. Decliners lead advancers by a margin of 1.4-to-1. Oil ended the week below $77. Unstoppable gold rallied $5 to finish at $1146, another record close.
For the week, the Dow managed a gain, while the S&P, Nasdaq and Russell 2k all ended lower. Dell missed Q3, but worse, guided very cautiously on Q4. Numerous retailers also expressed cautionary guidance on the all-important holiday season. While Dell’s a turnaround story, and expectations are sharply lower than growth animal
Apple, per se, Dell is still a big enough player to evoke concern.
Dell’s focus is corporate, which has yet to see a turn. Tech’s the No.1-performing sector in ’09, aided by improving consumer trends and hopes for a solid refresh cycle on both the consumer and corporate fronts. Tech upgrades also serve to drive additional corporate productivity gains, and productivity gains were the top story underlying improved third-quarter results throughout corporate America, as revenue trends remained generally poor. There’s a huge debate between the bulls and bears as to whether end user demand will justify tech inventory builds. There’s been some restocking in the channel, but I’m in the camp that global supply-chain inventories will prove low.
Homebuilder DH Horton also issued discouraging commentary (and results), which, of course, is no surprise to us. The action in critically important bank stocks — from Bank of America (blessed by hedge fund superman John Paulson, who formerly made a huge winning bet against housing starting in 2005-06) and Wells Fargo (Warren Buffet’s top choice) to best-of-breed JP Morgan — is underwhelming, which adds to our concern that the near-term direction for stocks is lower.
Paulson also indicated this week that he’ll be sharply bulking up his gold bets through some new funds. As regular HOTS readers know, I’m in his camp here, but given my negativism on real estate, find it tough to be positive on bank stocks. With the Thanksgiving holiday next week, trading is likely to slow.
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