Stocks were mixed, reversing sharper lower prices early in the session and following yesterday’s strong surge. The Dow, S&P and Nasdaq finished the session up 0.1-0.3 percent, and all established new ’09 closing highs, while the more economically sensitive Russell 2000 closed about flat and remains 3 percent from its October high. The Dow closed at 10,437 (+30), the S&P at 1110 (+1) and the Nasdaq at 2204 (+6). The R2K closed at 602 (-1). Declining stocks exceeded advancers. Rampaging gold also managed to register a nominal new ’09 (and record) closing high of $1,140 (+$2), despite a U.S. dollar rally of 0.5 percent. Oil was marginally higher finishing just below $80.
As it’s been throughout the year, the story was all in the dollar, which was up as much as 1 percent early but faded. The dollar “carry-trade,” as it is called, is the focus. The Chinese harped on it over the weekend. Investors/speculators (you decide) borrow dollars at exceptionally low U.S. interest rates, which the Fed tells us will stay there for an “extended time” (some now suggest this implies 12-18 months) and buy up stocks and commodities, along with other assets. Some Asian markets, including China and Hong Kong, peg their currencies to the U.S. dollar and, accordingly, have seen their assets and much of their reserves (held predominantly in dollars) marked down. This is driving not just booming stock markets in these countries, but also real estate booms. Resource- and labor-rich China also maintains the trade benefit as the dollar erodes (while some other Asian countries benefit and some suffer).
As we’ve said many times, the U.S. provides only lip service to wanting to maintain a strong dollar, preferring to reduce the value of our debt and spur exports (as well as spur the market). Of course, there’s worldwide political backlash from the emerging economies, which are trying to reduce investment/speculation in their markets and assets, as well as from the Euro countries, which are trying to bolster their own exports. We’re skeptical of our ability to drive prosperity through dollar debasement. The worldwide competition to reduce currency values will likely heat up, continuing to drive the world away from “fiat” (government-backed) currencies and toward precious-metal alternatives. To paraphrase bearish online publication Zero Hedge, each country is trying to talk down its own economy in pursuit of having the worst currency to inflate asset values and mitigate bank and other debt problems caused by formerly sharply higher real estate and other asset values and sharply magnified by excessive leverage. Japan and the U.S. have both talked down their respective economies of late. And, over the longer term, devaluing your way to prosperity is unlikely to work.
However, companies continue to posture very conservatively as well. Several retailers reported solid October quarter results, but provided cautious holiday commentary. As we noted recently and despite sharply higher year-to-year unemployment levels, we expect the holidays to prove a pleasant surprise. Sales and earnings comparisons are simply too easy, and the stimulus and other government efforts are paying off. “Core” consumer spending (auto, gasoline and other) rose for the third consecutive month in October. At the same time, October auto sales also came in better-than-expected. July-August saw the Clunkers government program spike auto sales and September saw the fall-off, but, lo and behold, October bounded up. We still don’t like the divergent market action and view S&P 1200 as a likely top, but sales and earning upside are solid cushions.
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