General Motors files for bankruptcy! While that’s the headline story, it was long telegraphed, right down to the day, and meant little to investors. Long gone are the days when GM was the market bellwether. Stocks staged a furious rally to start the week and month. The Dow and S&P rallied 2.6 percent to close at 8721 (+221) and 943 (+24), respectively. Leading the way again, as it has all year, was the Nasdaq, which rallied 3.1 percent to close at 1829 (+54). All the indices registered new rally highs. The Nasdaq is now up 16 percent on the year and 45 percent from the early March low. The S&P is up 4 percent for the year and 42 percent from the low. Today’s volume improved, but remained underwhelming. Breath (advancers : decliners) ran a solid 4.5:1 on the NYSE and about 3:1 on the Nasdaq.
Traders continue to ramp up risk moving away from treasuries and into almost every other asset class, including corporates, (both investment grade and junk), commodities and stocks (the rally in many foreign markets has been more pronounced than here). Last month, investors absorbed $50 billion of mostly government-forced equity raises by the banks; however, that has not squelched the appetite for stocks. And, despite weak fundamentals (reflecting low demand levels), oil continued its surge and now trades above $68, about 2x that of earlier in the year. In part, the oil rally reflects its dollar-based quote, whereas gas remains much more subdued. Other commodities have been strong as well.
Market headwinds include the threat of inflation, a weakening dollar and every increasing budget deficits courtesy of unparalleled government spending (and lower tax revenues). The government today committed an additional $30 billion to GM. We have a mixed, but generally positive, view toward the commitment to GM, while recognizing the myriad attendant costs. Where we differ with this government so vehemently is on the aggressive health care spend and cap and trade policies that have yet to be unleashed. Sure, they’ll be some general social good, but, simply, we can’t see that the economy, even a rebounding one (if we get that), will be able to absorb such.
The 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds lost 2 and 3 points, respectively, leaving yields at 3.72 percent and 4.58 percent, respectively, up from 2.1 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively, in December.
We remain in the same camp that rates will continue to move higher, but, a seeming dichotomy to most, that inflation will not be the culprit. We've suggested this in previous HOTS and will elaborate more on it in the future. We’d suggest that a 10-year rate of 4.0 percent would create a concern for equity investors that the hoped-for recovery will fail to materialize or be more timid than necessitated to justify current prices.
Who'd have ever thunk GM would mean so little to the market? Sadly, it means the final end to an era when many millions of people will earn a good wage. For now, we'll hope, largely unrealistically given the state of the economy, that many of these folk will find new jobs. However, irrespective of whether they do, very few will be at anywhere near the same wage. This is just another part of society where there will be the significant wage contraction and the concomitant loss of spending that I harp on so much.
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