Gubernatorial candidate Phil Murphy, Democrat, leads his opponent Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno, Republican, by 20 points, according to a poll released by Quinnipiac University on Wednesday.
With 13 days before the election, Murphy leads Guadagno 57 percent to 37 percent. The polling data suggests Murphy’s huge lead over Guadagno is thanks to his support among women voters. Roughly 65 percent of women voters support Murphy, compared to Guadagno’s 29 percent.
Assistant Director for Quinnipiac University Poll Peter A. Brown said in a statement released with the data that Republicans tend to win blue states by capturing support from "soft democrats" and dominating support from independents. Guadagno hasn’t managed to do either.
When it comes to voting across the aisle, more republicans support Murphy than democrats support Guadagno. Roughly 8 percent of republicans said they’d support Murphy, compared to 4 percent of democrats who’d vote for Guadagno.
Independent voters prefer Murphy, with 52 percent supporting the former Goldman Sachs executive, compared to 39 percent supporting the lieutenant governor who served with Gov. Chris Christie for the past 8 years.
Voters said that Guadagno’s baggage as Christie’s lieutenant governor had more of an impact than Murphy’s ties to Goldman Sachs.
“Guadagno could not be in a worse situation,” Brown said in a statement. “Murphy leads her among most voter groups and the state’s electorate gives her an unfavorable rating overall.”
In the past year, polls have had their reliability tested with several upset victories including the presidential election of 2016. However, the average polling error typically isn’t more than single digit percentage points. With Murphy 20 points ahead of his opponent, his victory seems predetermined.