Rising inventories of unsold homes, the prospect of higher interest rates and uncertainty about job growth dampens the outlook for a recovery of the state’s housing markets, but falling unemployment claims hold out some hope.

The 61,063 unsold homes on the market at the end of February represent 12 months

 Jeffrey Otteau

“We’ve seen worse,” Otteau said. In February 2009, the state had unsold homes equivalent to a 14.2-month supply, a record for this time of the year, he said.

This time of the year, however, is not the best barometer for the housing markets. “Late spring to early summer — April through August — is the best,” he said.

April home sales are likely to spurt as people rush to take advantage of the federal homebuyer tax credit that expires this month, but Otteau isn’t sure if the trend will continue.

“With a contract date deadline of April 30, and a closing date deadline of June 30, it remains to be seen whether home sales will again slump in summer once this stimulus has ended,” he said.

Amid all those concerns, one glimmer of hope is that home prices are stabilizing in the core central and northeastern parts of the state, Otteau said, where “prices are no longer declining, and in some markets are actually beginning to rise.”

Towns with less than four months of inventory include Milltown (1.71 months), Princeton (1.85 months) and Madison (2.12 months), according to an Otteau Valuation Group analysis. He said home prices begin to feel a downward pressure if the number of unsold homes exceeds eight months of supply.

Home prices could see downward pressure if interest rates rise, especially after the Federal Reserve’s program of purchasing mortgage-backed securities expired March 31, Otteau said.

But job growth could cushion all those assaults on the housing market. One critically important sign is that initial unemployment claims have fallen since last October, Otteau said. Unemployment claims earlier this year were 21 percent less than in 2009, he added.

E-mail Shankar P. at shankar_p@njbiz.com